After the latest rout, the American depositary receipt (ADR) premium of HDFC Bank to its local shares has shrunk to nearly zero. Shares of HDFC Bank on Thursday fell 3.1 per cent to Rs 1,490, extending its two-day decline to 11 per cent. Meanwhile, the ADR has slumped over 15 per cent in the past two trading sessions.
HDFC Bank Q4 review: HDFC Bank's January-March quarter (Q4) results, for financial year 2022-23 (FY23), brought no cheer to investors as elevated costs, and merger-related uncertainties continue to dent the sentiment. Moreover, analysts fear that merger-related costs may put pressure on margins and cost to income ratio in the near-term, while the return on equity could moderate owing to low leverage of the parent. Analysts, therefore, opine that the stock's re-rating may be some time away. "While the risk of a de-rating on a standalone basis appears to be quite low given that the business performance is holding up well, we believe a re-rating in the stock would happen as and when more clarity emerges on the smooth transition (merger)," said a report by Sharekhan.
The uncertain macroeconomic environment may have prompted HDFC Bank to go slow on expanding its credit card portfolio.
Benchmark indices tumbled about 2 per cent on Friday, capping one of the most turbulent weeks for domestic equities as investors fretted that the West Asian conflict could drag on for weeks or even months.
HDFC Bank Q1FY24 results analysis: Shares of HDFC Bank, the world's seventh largest financial entity, have advanced 2 per cent in two days, as against 1 per cent rise in the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex, after the lender reported its April-June quarter (Q1) results for financial year 2023-24 (FY24) on July 17. The S&P BSE Bankex index, meanwhile, has gained 1.3 per cent. While the near-term stock performance may remain sideways due to merger-related hiccups, analysts remain bullish on the stock's long-term prospects.
Tamal Bandyopadhyay details HDFC Bank's digital journey.
Global fund managers remain bullish on the Japanese stock markets, which is now their most preferred destination in the Asian region. Both Morgan Stanley and Jefferies in their recent reports, have cited their preference for the Land Of The Rising Sun, which is fast becoming the land of the rising equities, too.
Net NPAs increased to Rs 36,260 crore in the December quarter from Rs 34,843 crore in September and Rs 33,116 crore in December 2023, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Singapore's state investor Temasek Holdings, which recently picked up 10 per cent stake in Haldiram, has been consistently expanding its footprint in India while slowly withdrawing from China over the last three years amid growing geopolitical risks and economic headwinds. India has become Temasek's third-largest market, after Singapore (27 per cent) and China (18 per cent), with its exposure to the country higher than the rest of Asia Pacific excluding the three (11 per cent), according to Temasek's annual review.
'What is working is quality management, great teams, engineers, platforms, and highly differentiated services.'
Murders disguised as accidents. In one horrifying case, a man insured his father, mother, and wife -- then allegedly killed them all. He claimed Rs 54 crore in insurance.
'A credit line on UPI is going to make banks think about credit fundamentally as they digitise the credit process entirely.'
ITC, State Bank of India, HCL Technologies and IndusInd Bank were the other big laggards. NTPC, UltraTech Cement, HDFC Bank and Mahindra & Mahindra were among the gainers.
'He has been one of the clearest thinkers in the history of business.'
ICICI Bank share price hits record high, ICICI Bank m-cap tops $100 billion: Shares of ICICI Bank have been on a steady uptrend, rising 30 per cent over the past one year; not far behind Axis Bank stock that surged over 34 per cent during the period. The BSE Sensex, meanwhile, is up 25 per cent, and the BSE BANKEX 22 per cent in the last one year, ACE Equity data shows. On Wednesday, June 26, ICICI Bank shares hit a fresh record high for the third consecutive day, rising 2 per cent on the BSE in the intraday trade.
Education finance is a complex and dynamic sector. There are too many variables -- the course, the calibre of students, the universities, and the job prospects once the course is over, notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
There was no smooth surge in middle class prosperity for foreign businesses to tap into because of the Indian economy was mismanaged, argues Debashis Basu.
With the rise in interest rates, bond yields have been on the rise; this will dent banks' treasury profits. Also, many retail borrowers may find it difficult to service their loans when the loan rates rise, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
We'll need to wait a couple of years to see how many restructured loans turn bad and whether some banks fall victim to their obsession for growth, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
If growth reverts to the pre-Covid level, a lot of people may have to temper their rosy optimism, points out Debashis Basu.
Readers share their good and bad ATM experiences.
If the banks throw caution to the winds for building loan books, the hydra-headed bad loans may resurface and spoil the party, warns Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
It is 10 years since Bandhan Financial Services became the first microfinance institution (MFI) to receive the universal bank licence. A year later, in 2015, it started operations. Bandhan's entry into banking was seen as a vote of confidence by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for the country's microfinance sector. Subsequently, the RBI awarded small finance bank licences to nine MFIs.
Did the transaction fail? Did you receive your money on time?
Global funds, according to Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, are now beginning to pay more attention to India with the market now offering 30 companies with a market capitalisation over $25 billion.
That's the only way to convince those who have money to return to the bank fold, ditching other asset classes, says Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Of the total 53,334 cases of frauds reported during 2008-09 and 2018-19 fiscal years, involving a whopping Rs 2.05 lakh crore, a highest of 6,811 cases were reported by the ICICI Bank.
Every banker loves the four-letter word Casa as it plays an important role in lowering the cost of deposits. Every bank wants to increase its Casa, as a higher portion of Casa in the overall deposit liability brings down its cost of money, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'No commercial bank will be allowed to fail. There is nothing to worry about.'
'We may bite the bullet and draw up plans for privatisation.' 'If that is done now, the sale of the government stake will fetch money; a delay will see erosion in whatever value is left in these banks,' says Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
A reader shares his unfortunate experience at an ATM.
It goes without saying that the best performers are in the private sector, says TN Ninan.
Collectively, the pack of 12 has posted a 50 per cent rise in profits -- Rs 25,685 crore. On a quarter-on-quarter basis (that is, September over June), the rise is 68 per cent. Public sector banks have never had such a stellar performance, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Despite multiple headwinds at the start of 2023, the Indian markets delivered a strong performance, posting 19-20 per cent growth for the year. Even as new records were set, investor sentiment remains strong going into 2024, given the lower inflation, expectations of steady to lower interest rates, higher economic growth, and strong inflows. However, the overriding concern for most brokerages is valuations.
India may adopt norms similar to the US Federal Reserve model, which regulates conglomerate-led banks in the country.
'Investors should not commit fresh money to these stocks right now, unless they can hold for the next three to four years.'
'Put the assets of PMC Bank and the personal assets of the HDIL promoters and head of PMC Bank in an escrow account and ring-fence it from the ad hoc action of the revenue departments and creditors,' recommends Debashis Basu.
The continuing stress faced by corporate India has weakened their debt-servicing capability and this is reflected in the banks' books, as yet-burgeoning bad loans.
High networth individuals selling stocks to buy real estate is among the key risks for the Indian markets.
'The snakes and ladders game will continue till the consolidation process is complete simply because we don't know how bad the scene is, with some of the banks being merged,' says Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
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